The market has almost come full circle. Following President Donald Trump ‘s announcement of a U.K. trade deal , the S & P 500 on Thursday rose as much as 1.6% to 5,720 — its highest intraday level since late March, when the index was still on the slide from its record-high close of 6,144 on Feb. 19. While losing some steam into Thursday’s close, the S & P 500 was only about 2% below its close on Election Day, Nov. 5. S & P futures were modestly higher Friday morning as the index tries to extend its weekly win streak to three in a row. Sure, the post-election rally fizzled and then some. But that fizzle was self-inflicted by the president. All things considered, the speed with which the S & P 500 surged after the election, hit a record high in February, sank to its most recent low of 4,982 on April 8, and then climbed back to near where it all started in early November is further proof that timing the market with sweeping portfolio moves is a fool’s errand. Few were calling to sell everything in February when the S & P 500 was riding a Trump-will-be-good for the market and business wave. Jim Cramer was cautiously optimistic at the time, but he was trimming to hedge against tariff concerns and even exited two positions, Constellation Brands and Best Buy . On the flip side, few were saying buy everything in April in the throes of despair and what looked to be just the start of a never-ending slide on a near-daily barrage of negative tariff headlines. True to our discipline, in what then was an extremely oversold market, we made a series of small buys, including Capital One and Dover , just before and just after that April 8 low. .SPX mountain 2024-11-05 S & P 500 since Election Day close The president — whether he blinked because of the bond market, as many people believe , or the plunge in stocks — did begin to reveal an off-ramp from tariff escalation. On April 9, one week since announcing his “reciprocal tariffs” that were much higher than expected, and only hours after they went into effect, Trump paused the worst of the country-specific levies and opted for a baseline 10% for 90 days. China was excluded, of course. Since then, the president has taken other steps to ease the tariff burden on U.S. companies, including a temporary exemption on electronics imports, including smartphones and computers. This exemption, communicated to U.S. Customs on April 12, did pause for these electronic products all but 20% of the 145% China tariffs. On Wednesday afternoon, the Trump administration scrapped Biden-era so-called “AI diffusion” rules, which were set to go into effect on May 18. China is still a sticking point, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this weekend in Switzerland will meet with Chinese officials to start a conversation on trade. To be sure, Trump has still been talking tough; and not only with China. He has hinted at industry-specific tariffs coming — most notably the threat of pharma trade measures, which have put health-care stocks into the penalty box of late. And, even as he was announcing Thursday’s UK trade deal, Trump said he views 10% tariffs as a floor , with some being “much higher,” for other countries seeking agreements with the U.S. The bottom line: Timing the market has been costly because you have to be right twice — once when you try to sell the high and twice when you try to buy the low. Jim has said it time and time again, nobody is that good — and if they say they are they are probably lying. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
U.S. President Donald Trump makes an announcement about a trade deal with the U.K., in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 8, 2025.
Leah Millis | Reuters
The market has almost come full circle.
